KWDI Korean Women’s Development Institute

This research is designed as the second-year project of the 4-year Special Research (2011-2014). The main purpose of this research is to develop possible scenarios of future families by predicting the directions of changes as to the predictive factors for future families identified in the first-year research project conducted in 2011. In order to develop the scenarios, four areas including labor and economic environments, science and technology, political environment, and perceptions of family were singled out as major areas that can affect the future family outlook, apart from the area of demographic environment. Then, the Delphi technique was used to identify key drivers behind family changes in the future in each area. Next, the trend of changes was forecasted for each area and hypotheses were created regarding the impact of such changes on the lives of women and their families. Based on the combination of the hypotheses, caretaking, inequality, and family values were selected as main axes of the scenarios. Then, the three axes were juxtaposed to result in a total of eight scenarios, among which five scenarios were finally selected. The five scenarios include the conflict between personal values and family life scenario, the polarization of family life scenario, the loose but intimate family scenario, the coexistence of equal society and unequal family scenario, and the maximized familial burden scenario.

First, the conflict between personal values and family life scenario, which is highly plausible, describes a society in which the gap in income and quality of life is wide between classes, the government fails to provide adequate care services, and people put greater emphasis on personal life than on the communal interests of family members. In this scenario, a conflict between the burden of family caregiving and personalization of values is anticipated.

Second, the polarization of family life scenario, which is also highly plausible, is a society in which a huge gap in income and quality of life is experienced between classes, the service gap between classes is wide due to the marketization of care, and personal life is more valued than the communal interests of family members. In this scenario, increased inequality is highlighted.

Third, the loose but intimate family scenario, which is most desirable, suggests a society in which the gap in income and quality of life between classes is not wide, the government provides sufficient care services, and personal life is more respected than the communal interests of family members. In this scenario, family members maintain strong family ties while becoming less burdensome to each other.

Fourth, the coexistence of equal society and unequal family scenario, which is the second desirable one, represents a society in which the gap in income and quality of life between classes is not wide and expectations of women on housekeeping and care work remain intact due to strong familism although care service is provided by the government to some extent. In this scenario, gender inequality within family may have worsened although the relationship between families may have achieved equality.

Last, the maximized familial burden scenario, which is the worst situation among all, imagines a society in which the gap in income and quality of life between classes is wide, care burden is largely remained on individual families, and the values of familism have yet to be personalized. In this scenario, individual families are left with heavy responsibilities and serious inequality between classes and sexes will be experienced.

According to a nation-wide survey of 5,000 people on the five scenarios, the loose but intimate family scenario was most preferred. In order for South Korea to move toward this scenario, this research suggests reinforcement of social security policy, evaluation of overall care policy and future directions, and improvement of laws and institutions in accordance with the strengthening perceptions of individual-oriented family.